There are plenty of existing models on the web for forecasting elections, or at the very least analysing and aggregating polls. As far as I’m aware, none provide the full model that I am proposing.
- Kevin Bonham. This is the best model in my opinion, combining a fairly simple model with interesting and thoughtful analysis of elections and polls. He was also nice enough to send me some of his data.
- The Poll Bludger (Crikey). Does a fairly simple poll aggregator. Otherwise lots of good analysis of elections and Australian politics.
- The Phantom Trend. A sophisticated aggregator with some accuracy weightings. Has the humility to refer to themselves as “Like Nate Silver, only less accurate.”